Mutation calculations for a simple cell

Simple Cell Calculations (original)

On January 7^th, 2009, Brock Lee (me) conceived of the idea to calculate the chances of creating a simple cell. The idea came after a presentation I did on different views on origins at New Beginnings Church in Owatonna. I played several clips to illustrate my arguments, one of which was from Expelled (where Will Provine explains the results of believing in evolution). While reviewing my presentation afterward to see if I could improve for future presentations, I recalled the part of Expelled which stated that a simple cell needed 250 proteins, which was the inspiration for these calculations, 7 weeks to the day the large protein calculations were completed. These calculations were finished the next morning (January 8^th). The calculations took roughly 1 hour (partly to make sure my assumed numbers were accurate to the sources), and revealed that the odds of creating a single “simple” cell are more astronomical than even I expected.

Assumptions

These calculations ride on four (4) assumptions, which may be incorrect, but which are not detrimental, and if there are mistakes revealed, then they should only enhance my case.

Assumption 1:

I assumed that there were 20 types of amino acids

Assumption 2:

I assumed that Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed was correct when it was stated that a simple cell required 250 proteins

Assumption 3:

I assumed that the simplest protein required 200 amino acids

Assumption 4:

I assumed that, for the sake of statistics and calculations, this imaginary simple cell was as simple as it could get, meaning it has 250 proteins of 200 proteins each

Calculations

If you have read the article I wrote on the large protein calculations, then you already know the math part of it (at least the basic principles and properties). The setup was literally the same – copy and paste the large protein calculations table and then modify it for the numbers for this problem.

Number Table

		65051	50000
Goal	?	?	50000
	Front number	X 10 to the	Number of power done so far
	1.6069E+260	260	200
1.6069	2.5822E+260	260	200
2.5822	4.1494E+260	260	200
4.1494	6.6678E+260	260	200
6.6678	1.0715E+261	261	200
1.0715	1.7218E+260	260	200
1.7218	2.7668E+260	260	200
2.7668	4.4461E+260	260	200
4.4461	7.1446E+260	260	200
7.1446	1.1481E+261	261	200
1.1481	1.8449E+260	260	200
1.8449	2.9646E+260	260	200
2.9646	4.7639E+260	260	200
4.7639	7.6553E+260	260	200
7.6553	1.2302E+261	261	200
1.2302	1.9769E+260	260	200
1.9769	3.1768E+260	260	200
3.1768	5.1049E+260	260	200
5.1049	8.2033E+260	260	200
8.2033	1.3182E+261	261	200
1.3182	2.1183E+260	260	200
2.1183	3.404E+260	260	200
3.404	5.47E+260	260	200
5.47	8.79E+260	260	200
8.79	1.4125E+261	261	200
1.4125	2.2698E+260	260	200
2.2698	3.6474E+260	260	200
3.6474	5.8611E+260	260	200
5.8611	9.4184E+260	260	200
9.4184	1.5135E+261	261	200
1.5135	2.4321E+260	260	200
2.4321	3.9082E+260	260	200
3.9082	6.2802E+260	260	200
6.2802	1.0092E+261	261	200
1.0092	1.6217E+260	260	200
1.6217	2.606E+260	260	200
2.606	4.1877E+260	260	200
4.1877	6.7294E+260	260	200
6.7294	1.0814E+261	261	200
1.0814	1.7377E+260	260	200
1.7377	2.7924E+260	260	200
2.7924	4.4872E+260	260	200
4.4872	7.2107E+260	260	200
7.2107	1.1587E+261	261	200
1.1587	1.862E+260	260	200
1.862	2.9921E+260	260	200
2.9921	4.8081E+260	260	200
4.8081	7.7263E+260	260	200
7.7263	1.2416E+261	261	200
1.2416	1.9952E+260	260	200
1.9952	3.2062E+260	260	200
3.2062	5.1522E+260	260	200
5.1522	8.2793E+260	260	200
8.2793	1.3304E+261	261	200
1.3304	2.1379E+260	260	200
2.1379	3.4355E+260	260	200
3.4355	5.5206E+260	260	200
5.5206	8.8713E+260	260	200
8.8713	1.4256E+261	261	200
1.4256	2.2909E+260	260	200
2.2909	3.6813E+260	260	200
3.6813	5.9156E+260	260	200
5.9156	9.506E+260	260	200
9.506	1.5276E+261	261	200
1.5276	2.4548E+260	260	200
2.4548	3.9447E+260	260	200
3.9447	6.3389E+260	260	200
6.3389	1.0186E+261	261	200
1.0186	1.6368E+260	260	200
1.6368	2.6302E+260	260	200
2.6302	4.2266E+260	260	200
4.2266	6.7919E+260	260	200
6.7919	1.0914E+261	261	200
1.0914	1.7538E+260	260	200
1.7538	2.8182E+260	260	200
2.8182	4.5287E+260	260	200
4.5287	7.2773E+260	260	200
7.2773	1.1694E+261	261	200
1.1694	1.8792E+260	260	200
1.8792	3.0198E+260	260	200
3.0198	4.8526E+260	260	200
4.8526	7.7978E+260	260	200
7.7978	1.2531E+261	261	200
1.2531	2.0137E+260	260	200
2.0137	3.2359E+260	260	200
3.2359	5.1999E+260	260	200
5.1999	8.3559E+260	260	200
8.3559	1.3427E+261	261	200
1.3427	2.1576E+260	260	200
2.1576	3.4671E+260	260	200
3.4671	5.5714E+260	260	200
5.5714	8.9529E+260	260	200
8.9529	1.4387E+261	261	200
1.4387	2.3119E+260	260	200
2.3119	3.7151E+260	260	200
3.7151	5.9699E+260	260	200
5.9699	9.5933E+260	260	200
9.5933	1.5416E+261	261	200
1.5416	2.4773E+260	260	200
2.4773	3.9809E+260	260	200
3.9809	6.3971E+260	260	200
6.3971	1.028E+261	261	200
1.028	1.6519E+260	260	200
1.6519	2.6545E+260	260	200
2.6545	4.2656E+260	260	200
4.2656	6.8546E+260	260	200
6.8546	1.1015E+261	261	200
1.1015	1.77E+260	260	200
1.77	2.8443E+260	260	200
2.8443	4.5706E+260	260	200
4.5706	7.3447E+260	260	200
7.3447	1.1802E+261	261	200
1.1802	1.8965E+260	260	200
1.8965	3.0476E+260	260	200
3.0476	4.8973E+260	260	200
4.8973	7.8697E+260	260	200
7.8697	1.2646E+261	261	200
1.2646	2.0321E+260	260	200
2.0321	3.2655E+260	260	200
3.2655	5.2475E+260	260	200
5.2475	8.4324E+260	260	200
8.4324	1.355E+261	261	200
1.355	2.1774E+260	260	200
2.1774	3.4989E+260	260	200
3.4989	5.6225E+260	260	200
5.6225	9.035E+260	260	200
9.035	1.4519E+261	261	200
1.4519	2.3331E+260	260	200
2.3331	3.7491E+260	260	200
3.7491	6.0246E+260	260	200
6.0246	9.6812E+260	260	200
9.6812	1.5557E+261	261	200
1.5557	2.4999E+260	260	200
2.4999	4.0172E+260	260	200
4.0172	6.4554E+260	260	200
6.4554	1.0373E+261	261	200
1.0373	1.6669E+260	260	200
1.6669	2.6786E+260	260	200
2.6786	4.3043E+260	260	200
4.3043	6.9167E+260	260	200
6.9167	1.1115E+261	261	200
1.1115	1.7861E+260	260	200
1.7861	2.8702E+260	260	200
2.8702	4.6122E+260	260	200
4.6122	7.4115E+260	260	200
7.4115	1.191E+261	261	200
1.191	1.9139E+260	260	200
1.9139	3.0755E+260	260	200
3.0755	4.9421E+260	260	200
4.9421	7.9416E+260	260	200
7.9416	1.2762E+261	261	200
1.2762	2.0508E+260	260	200
2.0508	3.2955E+260	260	200
3.2955	5.2957E+260	260	200
5.2957	8.5099E+260	260	200
8.5099	1.3675E+261	261	200
1.3675	2.1975E+260	260	200
2.1975	3.5312E+260	260	200
3.5312	5.6744E+260	260	200
5.6744	9.1184E+260	260	200
9.1184	1.4653E+261	261	200
1.4653	2.3546E+260	260	200
2.3546	3.7837E+260	260	200
3.7837	6.0802E+260	260	200
6.0802	9.7705E+260	260	200
9.7705	1.5701E+261	261	200
1.5701	2.5231E+260	260	200
2.5231	4.0545E+260	260	200
4.0545	6.5153E+260	260	200
6.5153	1.047E+261	261	200
1.047	1.6825E+260	260	200
1.6825	2.7037E+260	260	200
2.7037	4.3447E+260	260	200
4.3447	6.9817E+260	260	200
6.9817	1.1219E+261	261	200
1.1219	1.8028E+260	260	200
1.8028	2.897E+260	260	200
2.897	4.6553E+260	260	200
4.6553	7.4808E+260	260	200
7.4808	1.2021E+261	261	200
1.2021	1.9317E+260	260	200
1.9317	3.1041E+260	260	200
3.1041	4.9881E+260	260	200
4.9881	8.0156E+260	260	200
8.0156	1.2881E+261	261	200
1.2881	2.0699E+260	260	200
2.0699	3.3262E+260	260	200
3.3262	5.345E+260	260	200
5.345	8.5891E+260	260	200
8.5891	1.3802E+261	261	200
1.3802	2.2179E+260	260	200
2.2179	3.564E+260	260	200
3.564	5.7271E+260	260	200
5.7271	9.2031E+260	260	200
9.2031	1.4789E+261	261	200
1.4789	2.3765E+260	260	200
2.3765	3.8189E+260	260	200
3.8189	6.1367E+260	260	200
6.1367	9.8613E+260	260	200
9.8613	1.5846E+261	261	200
1.5846	2.5464E+260	260	200
2.5464	4.0919E+260	260	200
4.0919	6.5754E+260	260	200
6.5754	1.0566E+261	261	200
1.0566	1.6979E+260	260	200
1.6979	2.7284E+260	260	200
2.7284	4.3844E+260	260	200
4.3844	7.0455E+260	260	200
7.0455	1.1322E+261	261	200
1.1322	1.8194E+260	260	200
1.8194	2.9237E+260	260	200
2.9237	4.6982E+260	260	200
4.6982	7.5497E+260	260	200
7.5497	1.2132E+261	261	200
1.2132	1.9495E+260	260	200
1.9495	3.1327E+260	260	200
3.1327	5.0341E+260	260	200
5.0341	8.0895E+260	260	200
8.0895	1.2999E+261	261	200
1.2999	2.0889E+260	260	200
2.0889	3.3567E+260	260	200
3.3567	5.394E+260	260	200
5.394	8.6678E+260	260	200
8.6678	1.3929E+261	261	200
1.3929	2.2383E+260	260	200
2.2383	3.5968E+260	260	200
3.5968	5.7798E+260	260	200
5.7798	9.2878E+260	260	200
9.2878	1.4925E+261	261	200
1.4925	2.3984E+260	260	200
2.3984	3.8541E+260	260	200
3.8541	6.1933E+260	260	200
6.1933	9.9522E+260	260	200
9.9522	1.5993E+261	261	200
1.5993	2.57E+260	260	200
2.57	4.1298E+260	260	200
4.1298	6.6363E+260	260	200
6.6363	1.0664E+261	261	200
1.0664	1.7136E+260	260	200
1.7136	2.7536E+260	260	200
2.7536	4.4249E+260	260	200
4.4249	7.1105E+260	260	200
7.1105	1.1426E+261	261	200
1.1426	1.8361E+260	260	200
1.8361	2.9505E+260	260	200
2.9505	4.7413E+260	260	200
4.7413	7.619E+260	260	200
7.619	1.2243E+261	261	200
1.2243	1.9674E+260	260	200
1.9674	3.1615E+260	260	200

Equation Table

		=SUM(C4:C254)	=SUM(D4:D254)
Goal	?	?	50000
	Front number	X 10 to the	Number of power done so far
	=20^200	260	200
1.6069	=A5*20^200	260	200
2.5822	=A6*20^200	260	200
4.1494	=A7*20^200	260	200
6.6678	=A8*20^200	261	200
1.0715	=A9*20^200	260	200
1.7218	=A10*20^200	260	200
2.7668	=A11*20^200	260	200
4.4461	=A12*20^200	260	200
7.1446	=A13*20^200	261	200
1.1481	=A14*20^200	260	200
1.8449	=A15*20^200	260	200
2.9646	=A16*20^200	260	200
4.7639	=A17*20^200	260	200
7.6553	=A18*20^200	261	200
1.2302	=A19*20^200	260	200
1.9769	=A20*20^200	260	200
3.1768	=A21*20^200	260	200
5.1049	=A22*20^200	260	200
8.2033	=A23*20^200	261	200
1.3182	=A24*20^200	260	200
2.1183	=A25*20^200	260	200
3.404	=A26*20^200	260	200
5.47	=A27*20^200	260	200
8.79	=A28*20^200	261	200
1.4125	=A29*20^200	260	200
2.2698	=A30*20^200	260	200
3.6474	=A31*20^200	260	200
5.8611	=A32*20^200	260	200
9.4184	=A33*20^200	261	200
1.5135	=A34*20^200	260	200
2.4321	=A35*20^200	260	200
3.9082	=A36*20^200	260	200
6.2802	=A37*20^200	261	200
1.0092	=A38*20^200	260	200
1.6217	=A39*20^200	260	200
2.606	=A40*20^200	260	200
4.1877	=A41*20^200	260	200
6.7294	=A42*20^200	261	200
1.0814	=A43*20^200	260	200
1.7377	=A44*20^200	260	200
2.7924	=A45*20^200	260	200
4.4872	=A46*20^200	260	200
7.2107	=A47*20^200	261	200
1.1587	=A48*20^200	260	200
1.862	=A49*20^200	260	200
2.9921	=A50*20^200	260	200
4.8081	=A51*20^200	260	200
7.7263	=A52*20^200	261	200
1.2416	=A53*20^200	260	200
1.9952	=A54*20^200	260	200
3.2062	=A55*20^200	260	200
5.1522	=A56*20^200	260	200
8.2793	=A57*20^200	261	200
1.3304	=A58*20^200	260	200
2.1379	=A59*20^200	260	200
3.4355	=A60*20^200	260	200
5.5206	=A61*20^200	260	200
8.8713	=A62*20^200	261	200
1.4256	=A63*20^200	260	200
2.2909	=A64*20^200	260	200
3.6813	=A65*20^200	260	200
5.9156	=A66*20^200	260	200
9.506	=A67*20^200	261	200
1.5276	=A68*20^200	260	200
2.4548	=A69*20^200	260	200
3.9447	=A70*20^200	260	200
6.3389	=A71*20^200	261	200
1.0186	=A72*20^200	260	200
1.6368	=A73*20^200	260	200
2.6302	=A74*20^200	260	200
4.2266	=A75*20^200	260	200
6.7919	=A76*20^200	261	200
1.0914	=A77*20^200	260	200
1.7538	=A78*20^200	260	200
2.8182	=A79*20^200	260	200
4.5287	=A80*20^200	260	200
7.2773	=A81*20^200	261	200
1.1694	=A82*20^200	260	200
1.8792	=A83*20^200	260	200
3.0198	=A84*20^200	260	200
4.8526	=A85*20^200	260	200
7.7978	=A86*20^200	261	200
1.2531	=A87*20^200	260	200
2.0137	=A88*20^200	260	200
3.2359	=A89*20^200	260	200
5.1999	=A90*20^200	260	200
8.3559	=A91*20^200	261	200
1.3427	=A92*20^200	260	200
2.1576	=A93*20^200	260	200
3.4671	=A94*20^200	260	200
5.5714	=A95*20^200	260	200
8.9529	=A96*20^200	261	200
1.4387	=A97*20^200	260	200
2.3119	=A98*20^200	260	200
3.7151	=A99*20^200	260	200
5.9699	=A100*20^200	260	200
9.5933	=A101*20^200	261	200
1.5416	=A102*20^200	260	200
2.4773	=A103*20^200	260	200
3.9809	=A104*20^200	260	200
6.3971	=A105*20^200	261	200
1.028	=A106*20^200	260	200
1.6519	=A107*20^200	260	200
2.6545	=A108*20^200	260	200
4.2656	=A109*20^200	260	200
6.8546	=A110*20^200	261	200
1.1015	=A111*20^200	260	200
1.77	=A112*20^200	260	200
2.8443	=A113*20^200	260	200
4.5706	=A114*20^200	260	200
7.3447	=A115*20^200	261	200
1.1802	=A116*20^200	260	200
1.8965	=A117*20^200	260	200
3.0476	=A118*20^200	260	200
4.8973	=A119*20^200	260	200
7.8697	=A120*20^200	261	200
1.2646	=A121*20^200	260	200
2.0321	=A122*20^200	260	200
3.2655	=A123*20^200	260	200
5.2475	=A124*20^200	260	200
8.4324	=A125*20^200	261	200
1.355	=A126*20^200	260	200
2.1774	=A127*20^200	260	200
3.4989	=A128*20^200	260	200
5.6225	=A129*20^200	260	200
9.035	=A130*20^200	261	200
1.4519	=A131*20^200	260	200
2.3331	=A132*20^200	260	200
3.7491	=A133*20^200	260	200
6.0246	=A134*20^200	260	200
9.6812	=A135*20^200	261	200
1.5557	=A136*20^200	260	200
2.4999	=A137*20^200	260	200
4.0172	=A138*20^200	260	200
6.4554	=A139*20^200	261	200
1.0373	=A140*20^200	260	200
1.6669	=A141*20^200	260	200
2.6786	=A142*20^200	260	200
4.3043	=A143*20^200	260	200
6.9167	=A144*20^200	261	200
1.1115	=A145*20^200	260	200
1.7861	=A146*20^200	260	200
2.8702	=A147*20^200	260	200
4.6122	=A148*20^200	260	200
7.4115	=A149*20^200	261	200
1.191	=A150*20^200	260	200
1.9139	=A151*20^200	260	200
3.0755	=A152*20^200	260	200
4.9421	=A153*20^200	260	200
7.9416	=A154*20^200	261	200
1.2762	=A155*20^200	260	200
2.0508	=A156*20^200	260	200
3.2955	=A157*20^200	260	200
5.2957	=A158*20^200	260	200
8.5099	=A159*20^200	261	200
1.3675	=A160*20^200	260	200
2.1975	=A161*20^200	260	200
3.5312	=A162*20^200	260	200
5.6744	=A163*20^200	260	200
9.1184	=A164*20^200	261	200
1.4653	=A165*20^200	260	200
2.3546	=A166*20^200	260	200
3.7837	=A167*20^200	260	200
6.0802	=A168*20^200	260	200
9.7705	=A169*20^200	261	200
1.5701	=A170*20^200	260	200
2.5231	=A171*20^200	260	200
4.0545	=A172*20^200	260	200
6.5153	=A173*20^200	261	200
1.047	=A174*20^200	260	200
1.6825	=A175*20^200	260	200
2.7037	=A176*20^200	260	200
4.3447	=A177*20^200	260	200
6.9817	=A178*20^200	261	200
1.1219	=A179*20^200	260	200
1.8028	=A180*20^200	260	200
2.897	=A181*20^200	260	200
4.6553	=A182*20^200	260	200
7.4808	=A183*20^200	261	200
1.2021	=A184*20^200	260	200
1.9317	=A185*20^200	260	200
3.1041	=A186*20^200	260	200
4.9881	=A187*20^200	260	200
8.0156	=A188*20^200	261	200
1.2881	=A189*20^200	260	200
2.0699	=A190*20^200	260	200
3.3262	=A191*20^200	260	200
5.345	=A192*20^200	260	200
8.5891	=A193*20^200	261	200
1.3802	=A194*20^200	260	200
2.2179	=A195*20^200	260	200
3.564	=A196*20^200	260	200
5.7271	=A197*20^200	260	200
9.2031	=A198*20^200	261	200
1.4789	=A199*20^200	260	200
2.3765	=A200*20^200	260	200
3.8189	=A201*20^200	260	200
6.1367	=A202*20^200	260	200
9.8613	=A203*20^200	261	200
1.5846	=A204*20^200	260	200
2.5464	=A205*20^200	260	200
4.0919	=A206*20^200	260	200
6.5754	=A207*20^200	261	200
1.0566	=A208*20^200	260	200
1.6979	=A209*20^200	260	200
2.7284	=A210*20^200	260	200
4.3844	=A211*20^200	260	200
7.0455	=A212*20^200	261	200
1.1322	=A213*20^200	260	200
1.8194	=A214*20^200	260	200
2.9237	=A215*20^200	260	200
4.6982	=A216*20^200	260	200
7.5497	=A217*20^200	261	200
1.2132	=A218*20^200	260	200
1.9495	=A219*20^200	260	200
3.1327	=A220*20^200	260	200
5.0341	=A221*20^200	260	200
8.0895	=A222*20^200	261	200
1.2999	=A223*20^200	260	200
2.0889	=A224*20^200	260	200
3.3567	=A225*20^200	260	200
5.394	=A226*20^200	260	200
8.6678	=A227*20^200	261	200
1.3929	=A228*20^200	260	200
2.2383	=A229*20^200	260	200
3.5968	=A230*20^200	260	200
5.7798	=A231*20^200	260	200
9.2878	=A232*20^200	261	200
1.4925	=A233*20^200	260	200
2.3984	=A234*20^200	260	200
3.8541	=A235*20^200	260	200
6.1933	=A236*20^200	260	200
9.9522	=A237*20^200	261	200
1.5993	=A238*20^200	260	200
2.57	=A239*20^200	260	200
4.1298	=A240*20^200	260	200
6.6363	=A241*20^200	261	200
1.0664	=A242*20^200	260	200
1.7136	=A243*20^200	260	200
2.7536	=A244*20^200	260	200
4.4249	=A245*20^200	260	200
7.1105	=A246*20^200	261	200
1.1426	=A247*20^200	260	200
1.8361	=A248*20^200	260	200
2.9505	=A249*20^200	260	200
4.7413	=A250*20^200	260	200
7.619	=A251*20^200	261	200
1.2243	=A252*20^200	260	200
1.9674	=A253*20^200	260	200

Data Analysis

The results are this: the odds are 3.1615 X 10^65051, or 31615 followed by 65047 zeros.

Remember, there are only 1 X 10^80 electrons in the universe, so this would be equivalent to finding a universe outside of out universe which is exactly identical to ours, and another, and another, more than 813 times. That means that there are more than 813 of you, me, anyone! Of course, the idea there would be 1 universe absolutely identical to ours is beyond astronomical, but the idea that there would be more than 813 identical universes (or would it be universi?) is crazy.

And if we want to make 2 cells, we don’t double it, we take the answer and multiply it by itself.

Conclusion

Please, oh please evolutionists, look at these numbers. Know you not that these are impossibilities by your methods and statements of belief!? Please oh please, turn back from your silly ways, your opposition to creation, and your silly belief that life just emerged from a puddle or from off a crystal (Mr. Ruse). These numbers make it absolutely clear that there is no possible way that evolution happened.